SIX TO GO – CHALLENGE CUP FINAL SPECIAL

Welcome to my latest column in which I highlight what or who could win the Challenge Cup Final for Hull FC or Warrington Wolves this weekend:

BELIEF

The way Hull FC have played this season and the confidence they now have, which was kick started by their big comeback win in the first Derby of the year at Hull KR on Good Friday, has given them the belief that they can beat anyone. They followed up that Good Friday win with another comeback on Easter Monday at home to…..Warrington Wolves. The Wolves had gone 7 games unbeaten at the start of the year before losing that game and also succumbed to FC in the return fixture in June which was FC’s 7^th straight Super League win.

Since opening the season with 7 straight Super League wins to top the table at Easter, The Wolves have never been able to attain that consistency again and have not put in a big winning run of games since.

ADVANTAGE – HULL FC

SNEYD OR SANDOW

Marc Sneyd is the 4/1 favourite for Lance Todd Trophy and wants to banish the nightmare of his 2014 performance for Castleford Tigers which saw him substituted before half time.  Sneyd had a slow start to this FC career with a disappointing 2015 overall and that continued into 2016 which resulted in some FC supporters calling for him to be dropped. Since Easter his form has picked superbly and he is one of the form players in Super League. His kick game is superb, one of the best in Super League this year, and he is dangerous when he is given time and space to take the ball to the defensive line and with the dominant form of the FC pack, he has been in a position to play on the front foot all year.  He will be partnered by Carlos Tuimavave who took the place of the more experienced Leon Pryce earlier in the season. He is much more than a support act and has proved a perfect and solid foil for Sneyd.

Chris Sandow is the 5/1 second favourite. I always knew that Sandow would be brilliant in Super League, the game over here is made for him. Whilst his early season form, which was electric, has not held up he is still one of the most dangerous running half backs in the game and anything can happen when he has the ball. He also has great vision and a good kicking game, although not as good as Sneyd’s and is a great support player as well. If the Wolves are to lift the Challenge Cup then Sandow needs to be at his mercurial best. Sandow will be partnered by the hugely experienced Kurt Gidley. The former Newcastle Knights, New South Wales and Australia player has been in great form whether playing at full back, where he started the season, or since moving up the field to held Sandow lead the Wolves around the pitch.  

ADVANTAGE - WOLVES

STRIKE POWER

The Wolves are the top point scorers in Super League this year and have outscored FC by 123 tries to 106 but that doesn’t tell the whole story.

Jamie Shaul has had by far his best season for Hull FC with many fans calling for him to be the England full back in the end of year Four Nations tournament. Whether this happens or not, there is no doubt that Shaul is an exciting player with pace to burn and this is backed up by his 14 tries which makes him FC’s joint top try scorer along with powerful winger Fetuli Talanoa who has, once again, been outstanding. On the opposite wing, Australia Steve Michaels has shored down his positon despite it looking likely that he will not be at the club next season. Michaels is a firm fans favourite and has scored 10 tries. Veteran centre Kirk Yeaman looked unlikely to get much game time this year and lost his no. 3 shirt to Carlos Tuimavave. However, the 32 years old veteran took opportunities presented to him through injury and has scored 6 tries in 20 appearances plus 7 assists and has looked back to his best whist fellow centre, Tongan international and former Melbourne Storm player, Mahe Fonua has been a revelation scoring 11 tries with 5 assists. In total, this back 5 have scored 55 tries and have 25 assists between them.

Australian Kurt Gidley started the season at full back but was pushed forward to the halves when Stefan Ratchford came back from an early season injury. Ratchford is a skifull and intelligent rugby league player has 8 tries to his name this season with 8 assists, showing that he times his runs in to the line well and can provide the clinical final pass required. Wingers Matty Russell and Rhys Evans are totally different types of players. Evans is recognised more as a centre and does not have the pace to burn like team mate Kevin Penney but he is strong and reliable defensively whilst Russell is a jack in the box and one of the best runners from acting half in Super League. His full back past means that he is also strong defensively and he is a dangerous asset for the Wolves. England international centre Ryan Atkins has exploded back to his best form in 2016 and is the Wolves top try scorer with 17 tries. He is tipped for a place in the England Four Nations squad and he is strong, powerful, skilful and has pace to score from distance, FC will need to keep him under wraps. His centre partner is likely to be the inexperienced Toby King who has made just 8 appearances this season. This back 5 have contributed 39 tries and 22 assists for the Wolves this year.

ADVANTAGE – HULL FC

FORWARD POWER

Scott Taylor, Liam Watts, Chris Green, Josh Bowden, Mark Minichello, Frank Pritchard, Gareth Ellis, Sika Manu. Have I missed anyone? Without doubt this is the strongest pack in Super League and everyone of them have had top quality seasons. Prop forward Scott Taylor is in the form of his life and will be very close to England selection for the Four Nations tournament at the end of the season. Fellow prop Liam Watts has not been far behind but it is in the back row where FC have real power. The impact that Gareth Ellis has on the side is well documented and over the past two seasons Mark Minichello has been one of the form second rowers in the competition alongside him. Former New Zealand internationals Sika Manu and Frank Pritchard have added even more power to the back row with Pritchard becoming a firm fans favourite thanks to his marauding runs and the constant smile on his face.  

Warrington’s pack isn’t too shabby either but they will have to be on the top of their game to match the power of the Hull pack. Captain Chris Hill is one of the outstanding English forwards in the game and has led by example once again whilst Ashton Sims is a real mentor for the rest of the squad and has a massive desire to finally win a trophy in his career. Ben Westwood will not back down against anyone and will undoubtedly be at the forefront of the Wolves attempts to unsettle the FC half backs whilst a back row of Ben Currie, Jack Hughes and Joe Westerman (if fit) is extremely athletic, strong and full of pace and has the skill and ability to cause the FC defence problems out wide.

The most important forward battle though could be at hooker. Danny Houghton has been at the forefront of the FC pack for a decade and his ability to play 80 minutes and easily chalk up over 50 tackles a match, with very few misses, is well known and he is a hugely respected player. The question has been raised in the past whether the amount of game time he plays alongside his insatiable tackling appetite maybe takes away from the attacking aspect of his game. When he first started out Houghton was one of the most dangerous runners of the ball from acting half, he was like lightening and caused huge problems for opposition defences. Whilst not quite as effective now he is still a dangerous player and the Wolves will be making sure he works hard defensively so that his attacking work is minimal. Houghton is currently the top tackler in 2016 with 1130 tackle made.

Daryl Clark won the Man of Steel Award in 2014 in his final season at Castleford Tigers and was England hooker for the 2014 Four Nations tournament. The Wolves paid over £100,000 to take him over the Pennines but they will have been disappointed with their return in 2015. His poor form cost him an England squad place and he failed to settle in to his new surroundings as the Wolves had a disappointing season. However, 2016 has seen a lot of that old form return with his speed of thought and movement from acting half once again causing opposition defences huge problems. FC must close him down, if Clark gets space on the back of his forward unit being on the front foot he is capable of causing havoc in the FC defence. His defensive work load is also much less than Houghton’s, he has made 500 tackles less this year (630).

ADVANTAGE – HULL FC 

COACHING

Arguably, Tony Smith is the best coach in the Super League era.  Smith won two Super League titles at the Leeds Rhinos in 2004 and 2007 and a World Club Challenge Title in 2005 and really kick started the Rhinos decade of Super League dominance before surprisingly leaving to take over as England’s Head Coach at the end of the 2007 season. After less than 2 years away from the daily grind of club coaching, Smith was persuaded to join the underachieving Warrington Wolves early in the 2009 season in place of the struggling James Lowes. The Wolves had always been blessed with talented players that had never fulfilled their potential as a team but Smith quickly changed attitudes and work ethics and took the Wolves to the Challenge cup Final in his first year defeating his old club Huddersfield Giants for Warrington’s first Cup win for 35 years. They successfully backed that up the following year defeating the Leeds Rhinos in the Cup Final and in 2011 they topped the league for the first time in over 50 years. He led the Wolves to the Grand Final in both 2012 and 2013 but they lost out to the Rhinos and Warriors respectively.

Lee Radford is the youngest coach in Super League and has been in charge just short of three years having been promoted from the assistant’s position when Peter Gentle was sacked on the back of a poor end to the 2013 season which included another Challenge Cup Final defeat at Wembley Stadium, 16-0 against Wigan Warriors, and an embarrassing 76-18 hammering at Huddersfield Giants in the play off’s. Radford had a tough couple of seasons in 2014 and 2015 and has had the fans on his back more than once in that time but, fortunately, club owner Adam Pearson has stayed loyal to his charge and the club are reaping the benefits in 2016 as FC have been the most consistent, and best, team throughout the year. Despite his inexperience, Radford will have learnt a lot from his Grand Final winning days at Bradford Bulls under Brian Noble and he certainly seems to have a steadier hand on the tiller this year.

ADVANTAGE - WOLVES

DESIRE

Hull FC have a burning desire to win the Challenge Cup at Wembley Stadium for the first time. Their local rivals, Hull Kingston Rovers, hold this over them and they don’t like it. Head Coach Lee Radford and full back Jamie Shaul recently referenced the fact they want to banish ‘’that’’ song forever. Their army of fans are likeminded and are desperate to end the Wembley hoodoo and I think the players, whether they are from Hull or not, have been made fully aware of this. If Hull could win justy ONE big trophy out of the three on offer this year, it would be this one.  There is one big difference between this year and the previous years in recent times that FC have played in the Challenge Cup Final – this year they BELIEVE they can win, previously they have thought they might have a chance. Hence the big number of Hull fans, over 25,000 tickets sold compared to 13,000 by the Wolves, that are heading down to London.       

Kurt Gidley’s and Ashton Sims desire to win a major trophy in the latter stages of their careers cannot be questioned and the club have an excellent record at Wembley in recent years – winning three times since Tony Smith took over in 2009, 2010 and 2012. However, I do not sense that it is the be all and end all to the club or their fans – they are, like Hull, still in contention for the League Leaders Shield and the Grand Final and if they lose then they will push on for those two trophies. I don’t sense a desperation from the Wolves to win the Cup that FC currently have.

ADVANTAGE – HULL FC

 

MY PREDICTION – HULL FC BY 6-10 POINTS. (IF THEY LOSE I’LL BE PISSING MYSELF) JJJJ